Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (2024)

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (1)

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (2)

Alyssa Barbieri

May 28, 2024 12:09 pm CT

The Chicago Bears have high expectations heading into the 2024 season, where they’re expected to contend for the playoffs after some big offseason additions, including rookies Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze, along with a returning top-10 defense.

In addition to facing their NFC foes twice, Chicago will play the NFC West and AFC South this season, which includes home games against the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars, as well as away games against the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans.

With the Bears finishing fourth in the NFC North, they’ll also face the same-place finisher in the NFC East and NFC South. With that additional 17th game, they’ll host the AFC East same-place finisher.

ESPNhas released their 2024 projections, including win probability for all 17 games for each team. Where do they project the Bears to finish in 2024 and how many of their 17 games do they have a favorable win probability in? Here’s a look:

Week 1: vs. Tennessee Titans

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (3)

Aug 12, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) scores on a 62-yard touchdown catch and run in the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports ORG XMIT: IMAGN-710965 ORIG FILE ID: 20230812_sjb_qt0_010.JPG

Win probability: 72%

Week 2: at Houston Texans

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (4)

Oct 8, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) runs away from the pass rush against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 41%

Week 3: at Indianapolis Colts

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (5)

Aug 19, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson (30) runs the ball in the second quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports ORG XMIT: IMAGN-710492 ORIG FILE ID: 20230819_sjb_br2_069.JPG

Win probability: 50%

Week 4: vs. Los Angeles Rams

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (6)

Sep 12, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet (85) breaks a tackle by Los Angeles Rams cornerback Robert Rochell (31) for a first down in the second half of the game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 58%

Week 5: vs. Carolina Panthers

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (7)

Nov 9, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears defensive end Montez Sweat (98) hits Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) in during the second quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 65%

Week 6: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (8)

Oct 19, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) warms up before a game against the New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 51%

Week 7: BYE WEEK

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (9)

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Week 8: at Washington Commanders

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (10)

Oct 5, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Chicago Bears defensive end DeMarcus Walker (95) sacks Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 66%

Week 9: at Arizona Cardinals

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (11)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – DECEMBER 24: Kyler Gordon #6 of the Chicago Bears sacks Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals during the third quarter at Soldier Field on December 24, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Win probability: 64%

Week 10: vs. New England Patriots

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (12)

Oct 24, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots safety Devin McCourty (32) tackles Chicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert (24) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 68%

Week 11: vs. Green Bay Packers

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (13)

Sep 10, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) screams in celebration after picking up extra yards on a pass reception in the first half against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports ORG XMIT: IMAGN-710511 ORIG FILE ID: 20230910_szo_qt0_0322.JPG

Win probability: 52%

Week 12: vs. Minnesota Vikings

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (14)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – OCTOBER 15: K.J. Osborn #17 of the Minnesota Vikings is tackled by Jaylon Johnson #33 of the Chicago Bears during the first half at Soldier Field on October 15, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Win probability: 65%

Week 13: at Detroit Lions

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (15)

Dec 10, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) throws through the defense of Chicago Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards (53) in the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 35%

Week 14: at San Francisco 49ers

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (16)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – SEPTEMBER 11: Nick Bosa #97 of the San Francisco 49ers is defended by Larry Borom #75 of the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on September 11, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Win probability: 24%

Week 15: at Minnesota Vikings

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (17)

Nov 27, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Chicago Bears defensive end Montez Sweat (98) sacks Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs (15) in the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 57%

Week 16: vs. Detroit Lions

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (18)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – DECEMBER 10: Zacch Pickens #96 of the Chicago Bears hits Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions during the second half at Soldier Field on December 10, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Win probability: 43%

Week 17: vs. Seattle Seahawks

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (19)

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – AUGUST 18: Cody Barton #57 of the Seattle Seahawks is tackled by Braxton Jones #70, Teven Jenkins #76, and Larry Borom #75 of the Chicago Bears during the preseason game at Lumen Field on August 18, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images)

Win probability: 58%

Week 18: at Green Bay Packers

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (20)

Jan 7, 2024; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) looks on as Chicago Bears safety Jaquan Brisker (9) recovers his fumble in the third quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 45%

Win total projection

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (21)

LAKE FOREST, ILLINOIS – MAY 10: Head coach Matt Eberflus of the Chicago Bears looks on during Chicago Bears Rookie Minicamp at Halas Hall on May 10, 2024 in Lake Forest, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Projected wins: 9.1

NFL rank: 14th

Bears' win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (2024)

FAQs

What is the Bears win percentage? ›

The Chicago Bears have a win percentage of . 554 all-time.
TEAMOPP PTS
1Bears25,737

How many games did the Bears win last year? ›

The Chicago Bears won 7 times in 2023.
TEAMOPP PTS
1Bears379

What are the Bears odds? ›

Bears Postseason Odds
  • Odds to Make the Playoffs: -110.
  • Odds to Win the NFC North: +320.
  • Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +4000.
Jun 6, 2024

Who is the losingest NFL team? ›

Their NFC North divisional rivals, the Green Bay Packers have recorded the most wins (799) in NFL history. The league's other still-active charter member, the Arizona Cardinals, have recorded the most regular season losses (803), through the end of the 2023 season.

Are the Chicago Bears a good football team? ›

The Bears have won nine NFL Championships, eight prior to the AFL–NFL merger and one Super Bowl. They also hold the NFL records for the most enshrinees in the Pro Football Hall of Fame and the most retired jersey numbers.

What was the worst season of the Bears? ›

In 1971, the team moved from Wrigley Field to Soldier Field to play its home games. In the mid- to late 1990s and early 2000s, the Bears posted six seasons with 10 or more losses. In the 1969 season, the franchise posted their worst regular season record with a 1–13 showing.

When were the Bears good? ›

The Bears kicked off the 1940s with four straight NFL championship appearances. The Bears won three, including the famous 73-0 annihilation of the Washington Redskins in 1940. Despite winning nearly 60 percent of their games in the 1950s, the Bears did not win an NFL title and made only one playoff appearance.

Which NFL team has the highest winning percentage? ›

Since 1966, the Dallas Cowboys have the best winning percentage by a team, winning 59.8 percent of the time.

What is the Bears record right now? ›

NFC NORTH
NFC NORTHW-L-T
1Lions Y12-5
2Packers X9-8
3Vikings7-10
4Bears7-10

What are the chances the Bears make the playoffs? ›

BetOnline currently lists the Bears' chances of making the playoffs at -130. Their odds of missing the postseason for the fourth-straight season are listed at +100. These odds suggest a 56.5% chance of a playoff berth for the Bears this upcoming season.

What are the stats for the Chicago Bears? ›

TEAM STATS
  • Passing Yards / Game. 182.1. PYDS/G. 27TH OVERALL.
  • Rushing Yards / Game. 141.1. RYDS/G. 2ND OVERALL.
  • Kicking Points. 109. PTS.
  • Kick Return Avg. 23.6. K-RET AVG.
  • Punt Return Avg. 8.2. P-RET AVG.
  • Points Allowed. 349. PA.
  • Third Down % 41.2. 3RD% 12TH OVERALL.
  • Yards / Game. 323.2. YDS/G.

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