Lions win probability for every game on 2024 schedule (2024)

Zack Moran

June 1, 2024 7:44 am ET

Expectations are sky high for the Detroit Lions heading into the 2024 season. After years as perennial cellar dwellers, the Lions have transformed into potential Super Bowl contenders, igniting excitement among fans and earning widespread respect across the league. Many believe last year’s success wasn’t a fluke but the beginning of sustained excellence.

The Lions are bringing back nearly their entire starting core from last season. Additionally, their 2024 draft, widely regarded as one of the best, addressed many potential gaps. The team also signed savvy veterans in free agency, not only to replace departing players but also to mentor young talent. It’s evident that the Lions have a well-crafted plan, and the buzz around their potential to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl is strong.

As projections for win/loss totals and player stats begin to emerge, ESPN has released its potential stats and winning percentages for each team. The Lions are favored in nearly all their matchups, underscoring the high expectations for the upcoming season.

Here are their projections for the Lions going into the 2024 season.

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Week 1 vs Los Angeles Rams

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff looks to throw the ball during the first half the wild-card round of the NFC playoffs against the L.A. Rams at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024.

Win Probability: 69% Predicted Score: 28-23

Week 2 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 3 at Arizona Cardinals

Detroit Lions wide receiver Kalif Raymond (11) is tackled by Arizona Cardinals inside linebacker Zaven Collins (25) during first half action on Sunday, Dec. 19, 2021, at Ford Field in Detroit.

Lions Ariz

Win Probability: 75% Predicted Score: 28-21

Week 4 vs Seattle Seahawks

Sep 17, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone (34) sacks Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) in the fourth quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 68% Predicted Score: 26-20

Week 6 at Dallas Cowboys

Detroit Lions offensive tackle Taylor Decker (68) catches the ball in the end zone for a 2-point conversion against Dallas Cowboys during the second half at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Saturday, Dec. 30, 2023. The play was flagged for illegal touching.

Win Probability: 43% Predicted Score: 22-24

Week 7 at Minnesota Vikings

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – DECEMBER 24: Brian Branch #32 of the Detroit Lions pressures Nick Mullens #12 of the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium on December 24, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 68% Predicted Score: 26-20

Week 8 vs Tennessee Titans

Week 9 at Green Bay Packers

Detroit Lions tight end Brock Wright (89) makes a catch against Green Bay Packers cornerback Carrington Valentine (37) during the first half at Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023.

Win Probability: 56% Predicted Score: 25-23

Week 10 at Houston Texans

Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) drops back to pass against the Baltimore Ravens in the first half of a 2024 AFC divisional round game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 52% Predicted Score: 25-24

Week 11 vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Dec 4, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) is sacked by Detroit Lions linebacker James Houston (59) in the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 66% Predicted Score: 24-20

Week 12 at Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts guard Will Fries (75), running back Zack Moss (21) and center Wesley French (62) celebrate after Moss scored an extra point after a touchdown by tight end Drew Ogletree (85) during the second half of the game against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, Oct. 1, 2023, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Colts lost in overtime, 29-23.

Win Probability: 61% Predicted Score: 25-22

Week 13 vs Chicago Bears

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – DECEMBER 10: Aidan Hutchinson #97 of the Detroit Lions sacks Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears during the second quarter at Soldier Field on December 10, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 65% Predicted Score: 25-21

Week 14 vs Green Bay Packers

Sep 28, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) is pressured by Detroit Lions defensive end John Cominsky (79) during the second quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 64% Predicted Score: 26-22

Week 15 vs Buffalo Bills

Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph (31) tackles Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) during the first half at Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday, Nov. 24, 2022.

Win Probability: 58% Predicted Score: 25-23

Week 16 at Chicago Bears

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – DECEMBER 10: Aidan Hutchinson #97 and John Cominsky #79 of the Detroit Lions sack Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears during the second quarter at Soldier Field on December 10, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 57% Predicted Score: 24-22

Week 17 at San Francisco 49ers

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 28: Sam LaPorta #87 of the Detroit Lions runs with the ball during the second half in the NFC Championship Game at Levi’s Stadium on January 28, 2024 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 34% Predicted Score: 22-26

Week 18 vs Minnesota Vikings

DETROIT, MICHIGAN – JANUARY 07: Kalif Raymond #11 of the Detroit Lions is chased by NaJee Thompson #11 of the Minnesota Vikings during the first quarter at Ford Field on January 07, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 75% Predicted Score: 27-19